碳排放和实际GDP与美国经济周期密切相关。这种关系表明，宏观经济冲击导致产出周期性波动，也应该考虑到排放的周期性行为。作者首先从文献中扩展一系列受欢迎的排放增强动态随机一般均衡模型中的技术冲击，并表明该模型中的各种冲击通过不同渠道产生了排放与GDP共同正向运动。然后，作者使用结构向量自回归（SVAR）估算排放对经验识别的技术冲击的响应。使用SVAR，作者还在解释排放预测误差变化方面对冲击进行排序。虽然排放量在大多数冲击后趋于逐渐上升，但与理论上对应一致，脉冲响应在统计上并不显着。意外的技术冲击占排放变化的不到10％。相比之下，预期的投资技术冲击占变化的25％。政府支出和货币
政策冲击不到1％。重要的是，接近三分之二的排放变化似乎是由于文献中尚未发现的结构性冲击。
图1.碳排放和商业周期注。绘制了1973Q1-2016Q3的实际GDP对数和碳排放对数的周期性成分。 这两个变量均按人均计算。 使用Hodrick-Prescott滤波器提取循环组件。 灰色阴影表明衰退。 同期相关系数为0.64，p值为0.00。
AbstractCarbon emissions and real GDP are strongly correlated over the U.S. business cycle. This relationship suggests that macroeconomic shocks inducing cyclical fluctuations in output should also account for the cyclical behavior of emissions and motivates our analysis. We begin by expanding the set of technology shocks in a popular emissions-augmented dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model from the literature, and show that the model generates positive emissions-GDP comovements to each shock through distinct channels. We then estimate the emissions’ response to empirically identified technology shocks using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). Using the SVARs, we also rank the shocks in terms of explaining the emissions’ forecast error variation. While emissions tend to rise gradually after most shocks, consistent with their theoretical counterparts, the impulse responses are not statistically significant. Unanticipated technology shocks account for less than 10 percent of the variation in emissions. By contrast, anticipated investment technology shocks account for 25 percent of the variation. Government spending and monetary policyshocks account for less than 1 percent. Importantly, close to two thirds of the variation in emissions appears to be due to a structural shock not yet identified in the literature.
Hashmat Khan，Konstantinos Metaxoglou，Christopher R.Knittel，Maya Papineau. "Carbon emissions and business cycles." Journal of Macroeconomics，60（2019）：1-19
