德国对碳捕集与封存说“不”：只因为缺乏公众接受度？

Stefan Vögele, Dirk Rübbelke, Philip Mayer, Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs

碳捕获和封存技术（CCS）通常被认为是一种较有前景的缓解全球变暖方法。然而，CCS目前正在失去政治上的支持。其主要原因在于公众对于该技术的接受度普遍较低。而这主要与CCS造成的环境风险以及该技术可能对可再生能源技术发展造成的不利影响有关。事实上，CCS的影响是多维度的。因此，要想对此技术进行充分评估，应尽可能全面地考虑到该技术的所有方面。由于利益相关者不仅仅看重它的可持续性，因此还必须制定更加严苛的指标。本文通过基于不同情景的多标准分析，调查了德国在应用CCS后的结果，这可以作为可再生能源使用扩展的替代方案。在调查过程中，我们采用了一套包括可持续因素在内的指标。结果表明，造成德国电力行业CCS未来变得萧条的因素是多种多样的。

Fig. 1. Perception of technologies

Fig. 2 Impact of CCS, renewable energy, energy storage and energy efficiency from the point of view of energy leaders. 

Highlights

•     Carbon capture and storage being regarded as option to mitigate climate change loses support

•     Sustainability indicators are not the only ones stakeholders are interested in.

•     Even factors distinct from sustainably indicators shows a gloomy future for CCS

•     A more intensive use of renewables will be more beneficial from an economic and social point of view.

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is frequently regarded as a promising approach to mitigate global warming. Yet, by and by CCS is losing political support. The key reason for that is largely seen in the lack of public acceptance for this technology. The absence of public acceptance, in turn, is in particular due to the environmental risks ascribed to CCS and the adverse effects this technology may create with respect to the development of renewable energy technologies. However, the effects of CCS are manifold and an adequate evaluation of this technology should take into account relevant aspects as comprehensively as possible. Since sustainability indicators are not the only ones stakeholders are interested in, attention also has to be paid to further indicators. By means of a multi-criteria analysis considering different scenarios, we investigate the consequences of the application of CCS in Germany that may serve as an alternative to an extension in the use of renewable energies. In doing so, we employ a set of indicators that also include factors distinct from sustainably indicators. The results show that there is a broad range of factors causing the future of CCS in the German power sector to look gloomy.

Keywords

Carbon capture and storage; Multi-criteria analysis; Scenario assessment; Energy scenarios

Fig.3 Assumed capacity in Germany (2030).